Analyzing complex water governance regimes: the Management and Transition Framework

This paper presents the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), an interdisciplinary conceptual and methodological framework supporting the analysis of water systems, management processes and multi-level governance regimes. It serves to improve the scientific understanding of system properties and to give practical guidance for the implementation of transition processes towards more adaptive systems. Doing so requires a systemic perspective to embrace complexity and the wealth of interactions characterizing resource governance regimes. The MTF supports and provides guidance for an interdisciplinary approach in the social sciences and across the social–natural science interface.The framework integrates a range of concepts to develop a more coherent understanding of the complexity of water management regimes. Specific emphasis is given to adaptive capacity and learning processes. However, the MTF is not linked to one specific theory but provides a language that can be tailored to specific research questions and different theoretical approaches. The structured yet flexible approach is a condition for developing shared databases that allow comparative analyses over a wider range of case studies. The MTF does not promote panaceas but a diagnostic approach supporting context sensitive analysis without being case specific and thus not directly transferable.     

Pteris umbrosa R. Br. as an arsenic hyperaccumulator: accumulation, partitioning and comparison with the established As hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata

The capacity of the Australian native fern Pteris umbrosa to function as an arsenic (As) hyperaccumulator (shoot:soil As concentration >1) was examined by growing plants under glasshouse conditions in an inert medium supplemented with As. Arsenic preferentially accumulated in the fronds, a trait of a hyperaccumulator. The As concentration of fronds decreased with age, being particularly high in the croziers and low in the senesced fronds. Below ground, rhizomes accumulated more As than adventitious roots. Uptake from a range of solution concentrations followed Michaelis Menten kinetics up to a soil solution As concentration of 400mgl(-1). The K(m) for As uptake by roots suggested the operation of a low-affinity carrier. The predicted Nernst membrane potential indicated that uptake was against the electrochemical gradient of As. At 600mgl(-1), the rate of As uptake increased and phytotoxic effects were indicated by a significant decline in biomass. Arsenic uptake and translocation in P. umbrosa and Pteris vittata were similar at low exposure to As. At higher exposure, As uptake and translocation by P. vittata increased more than in P. umbrosa. The growth rate of both ferns was similar, whereas the biomass distribution was not, with P. vittata having a much larger root mass. This suggests that As uptake by P. umbrosa roots was very efficient and may be improved by stimulating root growth to enhance its potential.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Biotransformation and antioxidant enzymes of Lumbriculus variegates as biomarkers of contaminated sediment exposure

In this study the black worm Lumbriculus variegatus was tested for suitability as biomonitor for moderately contaminated sediments. The response capacity of the biotransformation system phase II enzyme glutathione-S-transferase (GST) and the oxidative defense enzyme catalase (CAT) to contaminated sediment and atrazine was investigated to establish them as sensitive biomarkers. To get an integrated view on the enzyme activity kinetics, increasing concentrations of the herbicide atrazine were applied to stimulate GST response, and relationship between enzyme activity and herbicide concentration was observed at various exposure durations. Furthermore, animals were exposed for up to 1 week to sediments of four typical urban river sections with high anthropogenic impact. L. variegatus was capable to accomplish the environmental stress and the selected enzymes showed elevation. Significant changes of GST (membrane-bound and soluble) were detected after at least 4 days of exposure to atrazine and contaminated sediments. Although CAT increase could be observed already after 1 day of exposure to sediments, an exposure time of one week is considerable for accurate interpretation of the enzymatic response. The clear enzymatic response of especially the membrane-bound GST indicated charges with organic lipophilic substances at all sampling sites.     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.